Monday, May 15, 2006

A glass half-empty


There is a palpable sense of frustration on the right that chimpie isn't getting the knd of credit they think he deserves for the economy. Look at the Dow Jones Index, they say, look at unemployment, look at this and look at that.

And the fact is that the economy is working for some people, notably CEOs. Corporate profits are up 94% since the start of the Bush era; annual productivity increases are at an all-time high; tax breaks and direct subsidies for favored businesses have cost the public treasury trillions of dollars; and the regulatory environment, Sarbanes-Oxley notwithstanding, is as business-friendly as it has ever been. For businesses and very rich individuals, the Bush tax cuts have indeed worked.

For the rest of us - imagine if you will a 94% salary raise over the last few years - things are somewhat less rosy. And because there are more of us, the overall polling picture is less than impressive.

The fabled tax cuts which Bush pushed through a compliant Congress are usually Exhibit A in any discussion of their record. OK, fine. If you earn less than about $110,000, your taxes went up under Bush. This because whatever gains you may have had - and for most people, they were miniscule - from your cut was off-set, and then some, by increased state and local taxes, increased federal fees, and higher costs for education and health care. Add into that the higher inflation rate exacerbated by a staggering federal deficit (without even going into the amount of debt this adds to every household's share of the national debt), and you begin to understand that there is good reason for all of us to not be happy.

Arguably, the DJIA reflects this larger picture, because it's underperforming historical metrics. By all standard measures, the Dow should be higher than it is now, while in fact it is not even where it was the day Bill Clinton left office. This despite corporate profits that are up 94%.

It appears that George Bush senior - the elected one - was right. This really is a clear case of voodoo economics, and people are catching on.