Cut, beat and bash
It appears to me, from perusing my friend Aaron's blog, that the right-wing campaign machine is revving up; we have posts, mainly California-centric, about a candidate that wants to eliminate the gas tax, a special measure in the State Senate that proposes the dark evil of teaching positively about gays, something about how Ken Blackwell (may he burn in hell forever) is just hard-core enough to save the fortunes of the Ohio Rs, and something else claiming that the immigrant-rights movement (on which I have my own slightly jaundiced views) is merely a tool of communists out to destroy U.S. sovereignty.
In short, it's the roll-out of the well-known and somewhat shopworn campaign, which I describe as 'cut, beat and bash' - cut some taxes, engage in some chest-beating on America and the defense thereof, and bash some groups of Americans that lend themselves to being demonized. I note Aaron's postings because they're fairly typical of what happens in every election year around this time. Cut, beat and bash is the prototypical R campaign.
Thing is, times have changed. More concretely, the country and the Democratic opposition have changed, and the shift we can see might give the other side considerable pause. Simply put, the general state of these United States is now widely viewed as so grave that simple, formulaic answers are viewed as inadequate.
Take, for example, the tax cut idea on gas taxes, comparable to the ludicrous plan from D.C. to give $100 rebates to consumers. That's putting a band-aid on a gaping wound, namely the dependence of the United States on oil supplies from volatile regions. Voters do realize that the government is not the ultimate source of high prices, and that the real answer - energy independence - is not going to come closer with a cosmetic quick-fix.
As far as gay-bashing is concerned - and that's what the propaganda about the senate measure amounts to - that's becoming a notably less effective tool over time. For example, a majority of Americans now supports letting gays serve openly in the military, which was not the case ten years ago. Over time, the country always embraces formerly despised minorities, and always has. Give it another decade, and you will not be hearing any more talk about gay marriage. So that tool is getting less sharp as well. Playing into that from our side is a new focus on community, on Americans coming together, rather than on the cynical divisiveness that the Rs require to survive. I think that ours is the more agreeable - and more American and hence popular - focus.
As far as the chest-beating is concerned, clearly, the immigration issue is potent. But here, too, the Rs must tread lightly, or risk losing - as they did in California a decade ago with a nasty anti-immigrant ballot proposal - the fastest-growing voter block, for a generation. It will also be difficult for them to get any real measures past their corporate paymasters.
What's left is the usual Jesus cant, some flag-waving, and perhaps a bit of military imagery. All of that is going to prove hard to pull off credibly with the Abramoff scandal looming in the background, more scandals erupting seemingly every week, the disaster in Iraq foremost on everyone's minds, and the orgy of maladministration that is R Washington glaringly on display.
It's notable that the other side is trying to play offense. However, it's hard to do so when you're in charge of the entire government. It's also hard to play offense when you're bleeding from dozens of self-inflicted wounds, and when the opposition is relentlessly talking about them - along with the public. Defense, meanwhile, is tough when you need to hope for a change in an already solidified climate of public opinion - and that would require a string of successes between now and November. What are the odds of that from the gang that brought you Iraq, Katrina and Medicare Part D - not to mention Plamegate?
Let November come. I think we'll all be surprised at the extent of the change the country will have voted for. Mark my words: this is going to be big.
In short, it's the roll-out of the well-known and somewhat shopworn campaign, which I describe as 'cut, beat and bash' - cut some taxes, engage in some chest-beating on America and the defense thereof, and bash some groups of Americans that lend themselves to being demonized. I note Aaron's postings because they're fairly typical of what happens in every election year around this time. Cut, beat and bash is the prototypical R campaign.
Thing is, times have changed. More concretely, the country and the Democratic opposition have changed, and the shift we can see might give the other side considerable pause. Simply put, the general state of these United States is now widely viewed as so grave that simple, formulaic answers are viewed as inadequate.
Take, for example, the tax cut idea on gas taxes, comparable to the ludicrous plan from D.C. to give $100 rebates to consumers. That's putting a band-aid on a gaping wound, namely the dependence of the United States on oil supplies from volatile regions. Voters do realize that the government is not the ultimate source of high prices, and that the real answer - energy independence - is not going to come closer with a cosmetic quick-fix.
As far as gay-bashing is concerned - and that's what the propaganda about the senate measure amounts to - that's becoming a notably less effective tool over time. For example, a majority of Americans now supports letting gays serve openly in the military, which was not the case ten years ago. Over time, the country always embraces formerly despised minorities, and always has. Give it another decade, and you will not be hearing any more talk about gay marriage. So that tool is getting less sharp as well. Playing into that from our side is a new focus on community, on Americans coming together, rather than on the cynical divisiveness that the Rs require to survive. I think that ours is the more agreeable - and more American and hence popular - focus.
As far as the chest-beating is concerned, clearly, the immigration issue is potent. But here, too, the Rs must tread lightly, or risk losing - as they did in California a decade ago with a nasty anti-immigrant ballot proposal - the fastest-growing voter block, for a generation. It will also be difficult for them to get any real measures past their corporate paymasters.
What's left is the usual Jesus cant, some flag-waving, and perhaps a bit of military imagery. All of that is going to prove hard to pull off credibly with the Abramoff scandal looming in the background, more scandals erupting seemingly every week, the disaster in Iraq foremost on everyone's minds, and the orgy of maladministration that is R Washington glaringly on display.
It's notable that the other side is trying to play offense. However, it's hard to do so when you're in charge of the entire government. It's also hard to play offense when you're bleeding from dozens of self-inflicted wounds, and when the opposition is relentlessly talking about them - along with the public. Defense, meanwhile, is tough when you need to hope for a change in an already solidified climate of public opinion - and that would require a string of successes between now and November. What are the odds of that from the gang that brought you Iraq, Katrina and Medicare Part D - not to mention Plamegate?
Let November come. I think we'll all be surprised at the extent of the change the country will have voted for. Mark my words: this is going to be big.
posted by Michael at 1:16 AM
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